Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 0.091223 0.104510 0.118962 0.135836 0.154987 0.176034 0.200906
2026-01-25 0.068281 0.084848 0.104279 0.128709 0.158559 0.193803 0.238531
2026-02-01 0.051217 0.068671 0.090633 0.120205 0.158880 0.207638 0.273658
2026-02-08 0.039928 0.057578 0.081327 0.115450 0.163035 0.226822 0.318573
2026-02-15 0.031261 0.048370 0.072929 0.110485 0.166155 0.245254 0.365701
2026-02-22 0.026248 0.043423 0.069627 0.112121 0.178815 0.278850 0.439435
2026-03-01 0.020946 0.037007 0.063024 0.107698 0.181814 0.298943 0.496757
2026-03-08 0.017020 0.032038 0.057807 0.104540 0.186270 0.321979 0.562397
2026-03-15 0.013941 0.027902 0.053221 0.101611 0.190607 0.345490 0.632580
2026-03-22 0.012173 0.025805 0.051837 0.104078 0.204738 0.387668 0.741133
2026-03-29 0.010340 0.023194 0.049018 0.103371 0.212954 0.420629 0.838333
2026-04-05 0.008954 0.021205 0.047040 0.103946 0.223713 0.459862 0.953138
2026-04-12 0.007835 0.019604 0.045670 0.105766 0.237818 0.508694 1.096197
2026-04-19 0.006423 0.017007 0.041658 0.101210 0.237931 0.529861 1.187564
2026-04-26 0.005182 0.014520 0.037383 0.095234 0.233923 0.541964 1.262317
2026-05-03 0.004322 0.012786 0.034527 0.092020 0.235637 0.566749 1.368764
2026-05-10 0.003595 0.011223 0.031759 0.088469 0.235934 0.588486 1.472070
2026-05-17 0.003208 0.010521 0.031081 0.090148 0.249457 0.643083 1.660545
2026-05-24 0.002691 0.009293 0.028708 0.086827 0.249622 0.665762 1.776140
2026-05-31 0.002290 0.008315 0.026821 0.084462 0.251901 0.694080 1.910327
2026-06-07 0.001956 0.007460 0.025105 0.082231 0.254147 0.722713 2.049953
2026-06-14 0.001783 0.007111 0.024861 0.084372 0.269248 0.787596 2.294911
2026-06-21 0.001570 0.006556 0.023840 0.083891 0.276589 0.832630 2.493195